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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Results are split; both sides see victories in hard-fought contests

Democrats won at least two of the six state Senate recall races Tuesday but lost three more to Republican incumbents.
And as vote-counting went late into Tuesday night in Wisconsin's historic recall races, both parties waited on results in the most expensive legislative race in state history - between Sen. Alberta Darling (R-River Hills) and Rep. Sandy Pasch (D-Whitefish Bay).
That race was too close to call as of 10:45 p.m.
Just before 11 p.m., 26 precincts still had not reported in the Darling-Pasch race, and most of those were in Waukesha and Ozaukee counties. Pasch held a lead of just over 1,100 votes at the time, but Darling remained within reach with Republican strongholds still to be counted.
Mike Tate, state Democratic Party chairman, late Tuesday accused Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus of "sitting on ballots." Nickolaus enraged Democrats in April when she discovered votes from Brookfield that helped Supreme Court Justice David Prosser win re-election.
"We know we are sending at least two progressive women to the state Senate," Tate said.
John Hogan, executive director of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate, called the results a "huge victory for us."
"Voters gave us a mandate last fall," he said. "They backed us up again (Tuesday). Voters told us loud and clear, 'Stay the course. Things are working.' "
Republican Sens. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse) and Randy Hopper (R-Empire) were both defeated by their Democratic challengers, Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) and Democrat Jessica King of Oshkosh.
"I look forward to going to Madison to stand up for the working families, seniors and students of Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, Blackwolf, Waupun and all across the 18th district," King said in a statement. "Their voices will be once again heard."
Three other Republicans held onto their seats, despite aggressive campaigns put up by their Democratic foes and outside groups backed by unions. Surviving the recalls were Sheila Harsdorf of River Falls, Luther Olsen of Ripon and Rob Cowles of Allouez.
Two Democrats will face recall elections next week.
Democrats called for the recalls after Republican Gov. Scott Walker launched his plan to eliminate most collective bargaining for public workers, and Tuesday's races were seen as a preview of a plan to force a recall of Walker next year. If they don't capture the Senate, they may lose some momentum in that effort.
As the night wore on Tuesday, both sides were reluctant to say who won the Senate.
"It will be a victory no matter how many we get," Democratic Party spokeswoman Gillian Morris said.
The voter turnout was substantial all over the state. Voters were mobilized by massive get-out-the-vote efforts on both sides, and by expensive television and radio advertising campaigns that flooded the airwaves in all six districts. At least five of the elections broke the $3 million spending record, set in 2000, for money spent by all parties in a Senate race.
Tuesday's recalls were launched in March, during the turmoil in Madison over Walker's plan, ultimately successful, to curtail collective bargaining by most public employees. Democrats tried to recall Republicans for that vote, while Republicans tried to recall Democrats for leaving the state for three weeks to block a vote on the issue.
Sen. Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay) was the first to face a recall election, and he easily survived the challenge last month.

Expensive campaigns

So far more than $35 million has been spent on the recall races, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks political money. The spending on the nine races dwarfs the $19.3 million spent in last year's 115 legislative races, and approaches the $37.4 million spent in the race for governor.
The flow of money came as unions saw the recall elections as the best way to halt Walker's agenda and to send a message to other states considering changing their collective bargaining laws. Political observers are watching Wisconsin to see what the results say about the mood of the electorate leading up to next year's elections for president and Congress.
Unions played a huge role for Democrats by spending vast sums of money on advertising, and supplying manpower in all the Senate districts. Conservative groups have parried with their own influx of cash.
But the Democrats' argument in the recalls morphed over time from concerns over collective bargaining to objections to a number of GOP initiatives - most notably cuts to education and tax breaks for the wealthy - and the complaint that the changes were pushed through without enough public discussion.
Republicans countered that argument by insisting that voters - who just last November flipped both houses of the Legislature and the governor's office from blue to red - had sent them to Madison to balance the budget and get control of state spending. "Elections have consequences," was the often-repeated slogan.
Before this year, there had been just four recall elections of Wisconsin lawmakers. Two incumbents were recalled, while two survived the efforts. One of those who won his recall election was Holperin, who was in the Assembly in 1990 when a recall effort was launched because of his stance on Indian fishing rights.
Here's how the races played out:
32nd District: From the beginning of the state Senate recalls that have preoccupied Wisconsin politics for the past five months, Kapanke, 63, had been identified as the Republican most likely to be thrown out of office, and he was Tuesday.
Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D-Kenosha) said Shilling's victory was a rebuke to Republicans.
"The people of the 32nd Senate District sent Gov. Walker and his legislative Republicans rubber-stamps a clear message today: they've had enough of the GOP's extreme agenda that favors wealthy special interests and large out-of-state corporations at the expense of Wisconsin's working, middle class families," read a statement Barca issued.
Kapanke's district has been trending increasingly Democratic, including a win by President Barack Obama with 61% of the vote in 2008. Organizers of his recall were the first in the state to turn in their signatures, on April 1, a month before the deadline. Shilling (D-La Crosse) was the first challenger to declare in a recall election. A Democratic polling group last week showed him trailing Shilling, 42, by 11 points, by far the biggest margin in the state for a Republican incumbent.
And Kapanke famously quipped, at a Republican Party meeting in La Crosse, that Republicans had to hope public employees were "kind of sleeping" on recall election day.
They apparently weren't.
18th District: Hopper had been considered, with Kapanke, the other most vulnerable of the six Republicans to being defeated.
Voters in his public-employee-heavy district quickly gathered 22,500 signatures to force the recall.
His opponent, lawyer King, had lost by just 163 votes when they faced off for the open seat in 2008. On top of that, Hopper has had to deal with questions about an ugly divorce, where he lives and a state job for his 26-year-old girlfriend.
But Hopper, 45, a radio station owner, said his two years in office had proved that he and Walker have Wisconsin on the right track to fiscal health, and he was confident about his chances.
"It will be close," he said in recent weeks, "but I've always said, 'more important to do my job than keep my job.' "
That turned out to be true. With just three precincts still out, and those in King's home county of Winnebago, she was up by more than 1,100 votes, and the Associated Press called the race for her.
King, 36, a former Oshkosh alderman and deputy mayor, had predicted that the momentum of dissatisfied workers would put her in office.
14th District: Olsen's district came to be considered the Democrats' best chance to pick up a third Republican seat to give them control of the Senate. But Olsen, 60, held on to squeak by his opponent, Rep. Fred Clark (D-Baraboo).
Clark, 52, was the first Democrat Olsen's ever faced in the 16 ½ years he's been in office - an indication of how Republican his district has been over the years.
Still, spending in the race was second only to that in Darling's 8th District, according to the Democracy Campaign, which estimated last week that $5.5 million was spent in total, both by candidates and outside parties.
The largely rural central Wisconsin district stretches from Wisconsin Dells to Waupaca County. It is traditionally considered GOP turf, with Olsen's home of Ripon laying claim as the birthplace of the Republican Party.
Clark's Assembly district is in the southwestern corner of Olsen's Senate district, and until 2008 had been in Republican hands.
Clark and Olsen often told voters during the campaign that they like each other, turning the race into one that pitted a nice guy against a nice guy. In more than a dozen interviews with voters in Portage and Ripon, few were critical of the candidates personally. The voters had clear views on where the two stood and said they planned to vote even though the election was occurring at the height of summer.
8th District: In by far the most expensive recall race, Darling, 67, was caught in a tight race with Rep. Sandy Pasch (D-Whitefish Bay). Mike Tate, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, had called this seat the "crown jewel" of the recalls, because Darling, as co-chairwoman of the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee, had helped shape push through Walker's budget initiatives.
Darling raised well over $1 million for the race, the all-time record for a state Senate candidate in Wisconsin, and the nonprofit Wisconsin Democracy Campaign last week estimated $7.9 million had been spent by both candidates, plus all outside groups - nearly triple the $3 million record for spending on a state Senate race.
Besides Darling's key legislative role, the campaign was made more expensive by the higher advertising rates in the Milwaukee television market. Pasch, 57, was first elected to the Legislature in 2008.
2nd Senate District: Cowles easily defeated Nancy Nusbaum, the former De Pere mayor and Brown County executive. From the first, Cowles had been considered the GOP senator safest from being defeated. He was the final senator to have recall signatures filed against him, and a recent report by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign estimated just $750,000 was spent by all parties on both sides of the race - the smallest amount on any of nine Senate districts with recalls.
Nusbaum, 65, argued that Cowles had changed his political spots to fall into line with Walker's conservative agenda, switching from the moderate image Cowles had cultivated over 28 years in the Legislature. Cowles said he had not changed and was running on his record as a fiscal conservative who had worked in a bipartisan way on such issues as renewable energy and energy conservation.
Cowles, 61, was first elected to the Assembly in 1982. He won his Senate seat in a 1987 special election. Before running for the Legislature, he headed the alternative energy division of a communications construction company.
10th District: Republican Sen. Sheila Harsdorf easily beat Democratic challenger Shelly Moore.
Early on, Harsdorf had been considered somewhat vulnerable, but lately she'd been seen as well ahead of Moore, who was making her first run for office.
During the campaign, Moore, 37, of River Falls accused Harsdorf of betraying working families, public employees, students and seniors. Moore is an English teacher at Ellsworth High School and a member of the Wisconsin Education Association Council, the state's largest teachers union.
Harsdorf, 55, of River Falls, was first elected to the Senate in 2000 and served in the Assembly before that.
She said during the campaign that she has been a strong advocate for the people in her district and the state overall and did exactly what they asked her to do. That included balancing the state budget and controlling spending without increasing taxes, she said.

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